Taking Risk When Dying
400 words 2 minutes
In the beginning most startups are like fatally ill patients. They are companies without a business.
When people are fatally ill in a deadly decease with no cure they tend to willing to try any potential cure, no matter how untested, experimental or even dangerous and life threating it might be. After all they are anyhow dying so they have nothing to loose and can therefore take immense risks.
A startup which has not yet achived product market fit on a market big enough to long term sustain the company is dying. Paul Graham calls this that the company is “default dead”. Exactly like a patient that knows he is going to die within a couple of months if a new miraclous cure does not pan out a startup in this phase also knows that the money in the bank will only last them certain amout of time. Before that they either need to find a cure or at least a treatment that will prolong their life another year or so. Exactly like the dying patient might have to choose among a potentially deadly cure or a treatment that best case might give them some extra time before the inevitable.
This is why startups in this phase need to take risks. If they don’t, they die. But they should always take calculated risks. Try a small dose of the untested drug try to find signs of improvements to the patients health. If not then keep trying another one. Once you think you found the cure, stop all the other experiments and take the full dose. There is no way to take a half dose and become half cured so bet everything on it and don’t hold back. You can considering revisit your pet ideas once the patient actually is cured.